Using the Brazilian Amazon as a case study, Perz and Skole critique and explore ways to improve upon a commonly referenced theory for understanding trends in reforestation and deforestation, called the forest transition theory. This broad theory leaves a number of important factors in land use and cover change unaccounted for, and Perz and Skole make up for this weakness by going into greater investigative and analytical detail using empirical data about the Amazon. Subdividing the immense study site into three different regions according to level of human settlement, the authors identified separate stages of the forest transition as being experienced by the differing subregions.

One shortcoming of the theory is stated to be its lack of attention to the differences between primary and secondary forests, i.e., the inherent discrepancies between biodiversity levels, carbon sequestration rates and economic benefits derivable. Another factor that limits application of the theory is its multi-century conception of forest regeneration, which neglects to analyze nuances in the process. Amazonian forests are characterized by short-run transition cycles, as discussed in the article, and forest transition theory cannot account for these complexities. Furthermore, social and economic conditions that generally precipitate forest cover declines and recoveries are not addressed by this theory, and the authors examine these influential factors for the Amazon case.

They point out the need for standardization of research methods and endorse the use of satellite, vegetation and social data for assessing forest cover. They suggest that integration of forest transition theory with other interdisciplinary social theories could improve our understanding of land cover change in tropical developing countries. While data indicates that the Brazilian Amazon is experiencing a rise in secondary forests but a net loss in total forest cover, the lack of an appropriate theoretical framework in which to situate these facts precludes the formulation of a grounded forecast for forest recovery.

Prepared by Megan Glore